Central banks pause interest rate hikes, oil prices rise, and the euro weakens—all four strategies end October on a positive note
In October, the major central banks paused their interest rate hikes: The Federal Reserve kept its target range at 3.75–4.00%, although two members of the policy-making committee advocated for another increase. The European Central Bank also kept its deposit rate at 2.50%, even as inflation in the eurozone had risen to 3.8% in September (August: 3.2%). At the same time, sentiment continued to deteriorate: The eurozone economic sentiment indicator fell to 96.9 points in October (September: 97.9). In China, by contrast, the situation stabilized: Gross domestic product grew by 4.5% year-over-year in the third quarter, following 4.3% growth in the second quarter.
In the U.S., inflation continued to rise: The annual PCE rate reached 3.6% in September (August: 3.4%), while the core rate stood at 3.1% (August: 3.0%). The conflict in the Middle East drove up oil prices, with Brent rising 14.53% in October. On the stock markets, technology stocks came under pressure: Disappointing earnings reports and concerns about high AI spending weighed on major U.S. technology stocks toward the end of the month. The euro continued to weaken: The EUR/USD exchange rate fell from 1.1360 to 1.1163 over the course of the month, weighed down by rising gas prices and French budget risks. The Bank of Japan kept its key interest rate at 1.25%; the yen ended the month virtually unchanged at 157.49 per dollar.
Market Overview: Selected Markets and Currency Pairs
The October fact sheets show the following changes for selected markets and currency pairs:
Top Performers (excluding currencies)
Brent Crude +14.53% · RTSI +13.61% · SMI +6.98% · GSCI Commodities +4.36% · Dow Jones +2.78% · BSE +2.74% · US2000 +2.22% · DAX +2.02%
Biggest Losers (excluding currencies)
Stellar −26.95% · Palladium −19.15% · Baltic Dry −16.55% · Ethereum −16.54% · Platinum −16.09% · Silver −16.03% · U.S. Wheat −10.61%
Currency Gainers
GBPZAR +2.38% · CADJPY +1.88% · USDPLN +1.84% · CHFSGD +1.63% · AUDUSD +1.24% · AUDSGD +1.23%
Currency Losers
EURCAD −3.03% · EURCHF −2.80% · EURAUD −2.42% · EURGBP −2.33%
The currencies that lost value consist exclusively of currency pairs with the euro as the base currency. This is consistent with the euro’s weakness over the course of the month. In the commodities market, gains in Brent crude oil and the GSCI Commodity Index were offset by declines in palladium, platinum, silver, and U.S. wheat; Stellar and Ethereum were also among the biggest losers.
Changes in currency pairs do not represent the results of individual trading positions. Based on these changes alone, it is not possible to determine their contribution to the strategy's performance.
📈 Strategy Performance – October 2026
The following figures are taken from the October fact sheets. They are based on the results of the underlying currency strategy demo portfolios denominated in EUR. They do not represent actual returns achieved by an investor or the performance of participation certificates.
Fees from investments are included. The results are presented before the inclusion of open positions and before the issuer's costs and fees. They are preliminary and may differ from the annual results.
Guardian
+3.51% | YTD 2026: +46.95% | 12 months: +54.73% | Since inception: +170.24%
Strategic return target: 8–10% per year
Guardian is the broadly diversified core strategy within the 1000FTAD family and is spread across numerous currency pairs. The strategy also closed October on a positive note with a return of +3.51%; year-to-date performance stands at +46.95%. Exposure stands at 37.62% of assets; the remainder is in cash. Past performance is for historical reference only and is not indicative of future returns; the strategic objective remains unchanged.
Sentinel
+2.86% | YTD 2026: +58.54% | 12 months: +69.39% | Since inception: +305.01%
Strategic return target: 20–30% per annum
Sentinel has set a higher strategic return target of 20–30% per annum for Guardian. With a return of +2.86%, the strategy once again posted positive performance in October; year-to-date, it stands at +58.54%. Exposure amounts to 52.17% of assets. As with all strategies, past performance is not indicative of future results.
Vanguard
+5.34% | YTD 2026: +92.56% | 12 months: +115.43% | Since inception: +284.13%
Strategic return target: 35–50% per year
Vanguard can be classified as the most opportunity-oriented of the three long-standing strategies, with a correspondingly higher strategic return target of 35–50% per annum and a higher risk category than Guardian and Sentinel. At 71.76% of assets, its exposure represents the highest investment allocation among the three established strategies. Vanguard’s performance to date (October: +5.34%) can also be assessed only in retrospect and does not justify any expectations for future periods.
Pretorian
October 2026: +19.51% · September 2026: +6.42% · August 2026: +13.17% · Start of allocation: August 1, 2026
Strategic return target: over 50% per annum
Pretorian focuses on a concentrated portfolio consisting of a small number of carefully selected and strategically weighted currency pairs. This approach differs structurally from the more broadly diversified strategies of Guardian, Sentinel, and Vanguard.
Since the allocation began on August 1, 2026, the return has been +43.95%. Since only three trading months of data are available so far, the performance figure remains merely a snapshot. The track record to date is still too short to draw reliable conclusions about long-term performance, consistency, or the risk profile. Volatility and the Sharpe ratio are not yet available. The graphical representation of historical performance in the fact sheet will also not be included until a complete performance history of at least twelve months is available.
Return targets are annual strategic objectives and do not constitute a guarantee. Monthly and interim figures are not directly comparable to these annual targets. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Strategic classification
With Guardian, Sentinel, Vanguard, and Pretorian, the 1000FTAD strategy family continues to comprise four distinct strategies with varying return targets and investment profiles:
- Guardian – broadly diversified core strategy, strategic return target of 8–10% per annum
- Sentinel – A strategy targeting a higher return of 20–30% per year
- Vanguard – an opportunity-oriented, long-established strategy with a target return of 35–50% per year.
- Pretorian – a more focused strategy with a target return of over 50% per year and a short track record to date.
All four strategies are based on the "double-GRID-and-smooth-submartingale" trading approach of the 1000FTAD software and utilize systematic hedging mechanisms; they differ primarily in the selection, weighting, and concentration of the currency pairs traded. However, hedging does not eliminate all risks of loss; trading accounts offer neither a guarantee nor capital protection.
The October fact sheets show the following historical risk metrics for the three established strategies (maximum drawdown / volatility on a 24-month basis): Guardian 8.80% / 21.00%, Sentinel 5.34% / 16.49%, and Vanguard 16.96% / 39.33%. Despite its higher return target, Sentinel thus exhibits lower volatility than Guardian, while Vanguard has the highest figures (Vanguard’s worst month: −13.90%). These figures do not represent upper limits for future losses, and the risk classes (drawdown/volatility: Guardian 4/6, Sentinel 4/6, Vanguard 6/7 out of 7) are subject to change. The investment instruments are rated 7 out of 7 in all four fact sheets, while the participation certificates are rated 5 out of 7.
portfolio positioning
For Guardian, Sentinel, and Vanguard, AUDNZD is the largest single position in the October fact sheet (Guardian: 16.9520%, Sentinel: 15.4270%, Vanguard: 25.4092% exposure); in the previous month, it was EURJPY. EURJPY now ranks second across all three strategies (Guardian: 16.4718%, Sentinel: 14.3332%, Vanguard: 14.3261%). Other key positions—such as EURAUD in Vanguard (13.1388%) or USDCHF in Sentinel (5.8465%) and Vanguard (7.9771%)—vary depending on the strategy. The proportion invested (CFDs) is 37.62% for Guardian, 52.17% for Sentinel, and 71.76% for Vanguard; the remainder is held in cash in each case.
At Pretorian, the portfolio structure remains significantly more concentrated, though it has changed compared to the previous month: The fact sheet lists 126 positions (September: 81), compared to 314 at Guardian, 318 at Sentinel, and 327 at Vanguard. The largest position is USDCHF, with a 31.9887% exposure (September: 57.8622%), followed by EURJPY (11.8622%), AUDNZD (10.4085%), and GBPAUD (1.3278%). Overall, 55.59% of assets are allocated to CFDs, while 44.41% are held in cash. With this structure, movements in individual currency pairs can have a greater impact on the result. However, without information on trading direction, entry points, and hedging, no specific performance contribution can be derived from market movements. The information provided represents a snapshot as of the reporting date; positions and weightings are subject to change.
Conclusion
October 2026 was marked by a pause in interest rate hikes by the major central banks: the Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of Japan left their key interest rates unchanged, while inflation in the eurozone and the U.S. continued to rise recently. This was compounded by a significantly higher oil price against the backdrop of the Middle East conflict, pressure on major U.S. technology stocks toward the end of the month, and a further weakening of the euro. In China, growth stabilized in the third quarter. Against this backdrop, all four 1000FTAD strategies posted positive returns in October. Having launched in August, Pretorian has now been trading for three months; a longer-term assessment will still only be possible once it has a longer trading history. As with all our strategies, past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
You can find the complete key figures for all four strategies in the respective current fact sheets. Our team would be happy to assist you with further information or a personal consultation.
