The Fed and the ECB raise interest rates, the U.S. dollar gains strength—all four strategies end September on a positive note
September was dominated by monetary policy: The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2023, increasing the target range to 3.75–4.00%. The European Central Bank also raised its key interest rates; the deposit rate now stands at 2.50%, while inflation in the eurozone stood at 3.2% in August. At the same time, sentiment in the eurozone took a turn for the worse: the economic sentiment indicator fell to 97.9 points in September. In China, the situation remains subdued: Retail sales rose by 0.4% year-over-year in August, fixed-asset investment fell by 7.2% from January through August compared with the same period a year earlier, while industrial production surprised on the upside with a year-over-year increase of 5.2%.
The U.S. economy once again proved resilient: Nominal consumer spending rose 0.9% in August compared with the previous month. At the same time, inflation remains stubbornly high, with the annual PCE rate at 3.4% and the core rate at 3.0%. In the bond markets, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries reached its highest level since 2002. The U.S. dollar recovered over the course of the month (EUR/USD fell from 1.159 to 1.136), while the yen remained weak at 1.25% despite the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike, weighed down by the persistently high interest rate differential with the U.S. This resulted in shifts among the major currencies in the foreign exchange market.
The Macro Situation in September
Europe: The Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator fell to 97.9 points in September. The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50%. Annual inflation in the Eurozone stood at 3.2% in August.
China: Retail sales rose 0.4% year-over-year in August. Fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% year-over-year from January through August. Industrial production rose 5.2% year-over-year in August.
U.S.: Nominal consumer spending rose 0.9% in August compared with the previous month. The annual PCE inflation rate stood at 3.4%, while the core rate—excluding food and energy—was 3.0%. The Fed raised the target range for its benchmark interest rate to 3.75–4.00%. It was the first interest rate hike since 2023. The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds reached its highest level since 2002.
Currencies: The EUR/USD exchange rate fell from 1.159 to 1.136 over the course of the month. Despite the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike to 1.25%, the yen remained weak against the U.S. dollar. The persistently wide interest rate differential with the U.S. weighed on the Japanese currency.
Overall, the economic picture remained mixed. Differing trends in growth and inflation, as well as monetary policy decisions, influence interest rate differentials and, consequently, the environment for foreign exchange trading.
Market Overview: Selected Markets and Currency Pairs
The September fact sheets show the following changes for selected markets and currency pairs:
Top Performers (excluding currencies)
Litecoin +35.51% · Stellar +26.79% · Brent Oil +8.74% · Ethereum +7.48% · RTSI +7.46% · Bitcoin +5.75%
Biggest Losers (excluding currencies)
U.S. Wheat −12.90% · Palladium −12.18% · Silver −9.57% · Nasdaq 100 −8.58% · AMEX Gold Bugs −6.74% · Gold −6.71% · BSE Sensex −5.82%
Currency Gainers
USDPLN +3.41% · USDCHF +3.40% · USDHUF +2.96% · GBPNZD +2.82% · USDCAD +2.71% · EURNZD +2.43%
Currency Losers
NZDJPY −6.22% · NZDUSD −4.82% · AUDJPY −4.49% · NZDSGD −4.35%
Among the currency gainers are several currency pairs with the U.S. dollar as the base currency. This is consistent with the dollar’s recovery over the course of the month. The positive changes in GBPNZD and EURNZD, as well as the negative changes in NZDJPY, NZDUSD, and NZDSGD, indicate weakness in the New Zealand dollar against these currencies. Among commodities, silver, gold, palladium, and U.S. wheat, among others, declined, while Brent crude oil rose.
Changes in currency pairs do not represent the results of individual trading positions. Based on these changes alone, it is not possible to determine their contribution to the strategy's performance.
📈 Strategy Performance – September 2026
Guardian
+3.25% | YTD 2026: +41.98% | 12 months: +72.90% | Since inception: +161.09%
Strategic return target: 8–10% p.a.
Guardian is the broadly diversified core strategy within the 1000FTAD family and is spread across numerous currency pairs. The strategy also ended September on a positive note with a return of +3.25%; year-to-date, its performance stands at +41.98%. Exposure stands at 32.53% of assets; the remainder is in cash. Past performance is for historical reference only and is not indicative of future returns; the strategic objective remains unchanged.
Sentinel
+4.28% | YTD 2026: +54.13% | 12 months: +88.54% | Since inception: +293.75%
Strategic return target: 20–30% per annum
Sentinel has set a higher strategic return target of 20–30% per annum for Guardian. With a return of +4.28%, the strategy once again posted positive performance in September; year-to-date, it stands at +54.13%. The exposure amounts to 38.99% of assets. As with all strategies, past performance is not indicative of future results.
Vanguard
+7.81% | YTD 2026: +82.80% | 12 months: +144.99% | Since inception: +264.66%
Strategic return target: 35–50% per year
Vanguard can be classified as the most opportunity-oriented of the three long-standing strategies, with a correspondingly higher strategic return target of 35–50% per annum and a higher risk category than Guardian and Sentinel. At 73.19% of assets, its exposure represents the highest investment allocation among the three established strategies. Vanguard’s performance to date (September: +7.81%) can also be assessed only in retrospect and does not constitute a basis for expectations regarding future periods.
Pretorian
Pretorian has been part of our family of strategies since August and has replaced Venture. The strategy complements our existing approaches with a more focused orientation.
September 2026: +6.42% · August 2026: +13.17% · Allocation start date: August 1, 2026
Strategic return target: over 50% per year
Pretorian focuses on a concentrated portfolio consisting of a small number of carefully selected and strategically weighted currency pairs. This approach differs structurally from the more broadly diversified strategies of Guardian, Sentinel, and Vanguard.
Since the allocation did not begin until August 1, 2026, only two months of trading data are available so far. The performance therefore continues to represent only a snapshot. The track record to date is still too short to draw reliable conclusions about long-term performance, consistency, or the risk profile. Volatility and the Sharpe ratio are not yet available. The graphical representation of historical performance in the fact sheet will also not be included until a complete performance history of at least twelve months is available.
Return targets are annual strategic objectives and do not constitute a guarantee. Monthly and interim figures are not directly comparable to these annual targets. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Strategic classification
With Guardian, Sentinel, Vanguard, and the new Pretorian, the 1000FTAD strategy family continues to comprise four distinct strategies with varying return targets and investment profiles:
- Guardian – broadly diversified core strategy, strategic return target of 8–10% per annum
- Sentinel – A strategy targeting a higher return of 20–30% per year
- Vanguard – an opportunity-oriented, long-established strategy with a target return of 35–50% per year.
- Pretorian – a new, more concentrated strategy with a target return of over 50% per year and a very short track record to date.
All four strategies are based on the "double-GRID-and-smooth-submartingale" trading approach of the 1000FTAD software and utilize systematic hedging mechanisms. The differences between the strategies lie primarily in the selection, weighting, and concentration of the currency pairs traded in each case.
portfolio positioning
For Guardian, Sentinel, and Vanguard, EURJPY remains the largest single position in each portfolio (Guardian: 18.3259%, Sentinel: 15.9519%, Vanguard: 24.2272% exposure). AUDNZD ranks second across all three strategies (Guardian: 9.8590%, Sentinel: 9.0590%, Vanguard: 21.6106%), while other key positions—such as CHFSGD, USDCHF, or EURAUD—vary depending on the strategy. The proportion invested (CFDs) is 32.53% for Guardian, 38.99% for Sentinel, and 73.19% for Vanguard; the remainder is held in cash in each case.
At Pretorian, the portfolio structure is significantly more concentrated: The fact sheet lists 81 positions, compared with 316 at Guardian and 325 each at Sentinel and Vanguard. The largest position is USDCHF with a 57.8622% exposure, followed by AUDNZD (7.0492%), EURJPY (3.5433%), and GBPAUD (0.5530%). Overall, 69.01% of assets are allocated to CFDs, while 30.99% are held in cash. With this structure, movements in individual currency pairs can have a greater impact on the overall result. However, given the positive performance of USDCHF in September (+3.40%), it is not possible to determine a specific contribution to performance without information on the direction of the trade, entry points, and hedging. The information provided represents a snapshot as of the reporting date; positions and weightings are subject to change.
Conclusion
September 2026 was marked by monetary tightening: The Fed and the ECB raised interest rates, long-term yields rose to multi-year highs, the U.S. dollar rebounded, and the yen remained weak despite an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. At the same time, the economic picture remains mixed, with subdued sentiment in Europe, slowing momentum in China, and a robust yet inflation-driven U.S. environment. Against this backdrop, all four 1000FTAD strategies posted positive results for September. Having launched in August, Pretorian now has two months of trading data; a longer-term assessment will still only be possible once it has a longer trading history. As with all our strategies, past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
You can find the complete key figures for all four strategies in the respective current fact sheets. Our team would be happy to assist you with further information or a personal consultation.
