The Strait of Hormuz — a bottleneck for the global economy
As military tensions in the Middle East began to escalate, the price of Brent crude oil climbed toward $120 per barrel—a level last reached in July 2022 during Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. The reason: An extreme scenario that analysts had been warning about since the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023 has come to pass—the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to shipping.
Inflation as a direct consequence
About 20 percent of the world’s oil transit passes through this strait. The supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which is also exported by Gulf states, is particularly precarious. The consequences are immediately felt: By March 2026, the inflation rate in Germany had already risen to 2.7 percent. Energy prices alone rose by 7.2 percent compared with the same month a year earlier.
Ceasefire Brings Relief — But Not the All-Clear
In early April, there was a brief sense of relief: Following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between Iran and the U.S., the price of Brent crude fell within hours from over $104 to just under $94. But the situation remains fragile. For investors, this means that energy stocks, defense stocks, and inflation-protected bonds are coming into focus—while energy-intensive sectors and consumer-related companies remain under pressure.
In an environment where energy prices override political decisions and destabilize inflation expectations, portfolios need more than just gut feelings—they need disciplined, automated risk management that responds to shocks in real time.
